About the group

Questions regarding modeling and forecasting primary economic indicators such as the unemployment level, economic growth rate, inflation level, etc., have always been relevant. The transition to an inflation targeting policy made by the Central Bank of Russia at the end of 2014 and Russian fiscal policy dynamics underscore the importance of theoretical and practical analysis of the affection mechanisms themselves and the efficiency of different types of economic policies. Previously, such economic indicators and economic policy problems in Russia, as well as in other countries, were studied and modelled mostly at the level of national economy. Analysis of regional features of economic indicators and problems is growing in popularity. It is becoming clear that the same factors and regulatory effects influence different regions within one country in different ways. For example, the change of the key rate can have an unequal effect on every Russian region. The overall target inflation level across Russia is 4%, but is this an optimal value for all Russian regions?

In other words, to undertake a thorough analysis of a problem, the heterogeneity of the territories affected by common shocks must be considered. Moreover, when analysing the consequences of such shocks spreading, the mutual influence of regions towards each other should be taken into account. The absence of insurmountable borders between regions poses a question about how economically significant events occurring in a given region are reflected on other (primarily neighbouring) regions. Currently, tools that help us answer this question do exist and are being actively developed. Those tools are represented by spatial econometrics models and approaches, as well as methods developed for regional economic policy efficiency analysis (e.g., difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, switching regressions, etc.). They are mostly used for analysing data from European countries and regions, as well as from American states since such units are more or less homogeneous or fit the “centre-periphery” models well. However, Russian regions are strongly heterogeneous. For example, there are obvious significant distinctions between eastern and western regions. In this regard, the following issues must be considered: determination of connections between regions (e.g., the ones based on geographical proximity, industry structure similarity or the size of the commodity flows, etc.), modernization of current spatial econometrics models and approaches, and regional economic policy efficiency analysis methods. Regionally specific analysis of spreading macroeconomic shocks and the dynamics of essential macroeconomic indicators such as inflation rate, unemployment level, and economic growth rate, require significant Russian territory disparities to be considered. These disparities cause an asymmetric influence of economic policy on the evolution of economic processes in regions.

Goals of the RWG

• Organization of a regular academic seminars dedicated to spatial econometrics methods and economic policy problems, including the aspects of mechanisms affecting asymmetry and the final influence on Russian regions’ economies
• Participation in Russian and international conferences
• Research collaboration with foreign and Russian scientists
• Research residency opportunities for professors from regional universities
• Involvement of undergraduate and postgraduate students from the Faculty in the work of the research group
• Creation of new educational materials related to the RWG’s scientific field
• Organization of project seminars for FES students

Expected results

• Creation of a new educational practice at HSE University’s Faculty of Economic Sciences (FES) that involves students and early career scientists in research that features interactions between professors, students, scientists, and employers.
• Training of new FES academic staff by undergraduate and postgraduate students who participate in RWG projects.
• Formation of teams and developing research skills by involving students in common projects
• Establishment of contacts with colleagues from the Bank of Russia (cooperative project seminars, organization of workshops and conferences)
• Academic growth and involvement of every group member in publications (cooperative publications will be welcomed), an opportunity to choose the most suitable individual track for academic growth.
• Publications in Russian and international journals.
• Expanding the list of international contacts. Conducting cooperative workshops and sessions at conferences. Preparation of cooperative publications.
• Preparation of a spatial econometrics course textbook, development of additional topics in programmes of academic disciplines that align with the RWG’s scientific interests.