Dear colleagues,  

Department of Theoretical Economics invites you to attend the research seminar with Vitalii Skopin, HSE

Date: May 19, 2026
Time: 1:00 p.m.
Working language: English
Speaker: Vitalii Skopin, Assistant, Department of Theoretical Economics

The link to the seminar: https://telemost.360.yandex.ru/j/4085305067

Title: The Limits of Human Capital: Knowledge-Based Growth and Population Decline

Abstract: This paper studies how population decline affects economic growth through more education in developed economies. It develops a ten period overlapping generations model with lifelong learning in an R&D-based growth framework. Individuals allocate their time between education, labor, and leisure over the entire lifetime. They accumulate human capital following Lucas (1988) which accounts for opportunity costs of study and class-size effects in schooling. The theoretical framework allows us to identify the key drivers of educational expansion by decomposing the demographic transition into two ingredients, i.e., fertility and longevity. The model, calibrated for the G7 countries, shows that rising longevity, rather than falling fertility is the primary driver of educational expansion. Moreover, falling fertility leads to a slowdown in technological progress as agents make insufficient investments in education to offset the negative impacts of the demographic transition. Nevertheless, in combination with rising longevity it is possible to neutralize population decline and sustain economic growth.