FES Alumni Brown Bag Seminar Series

To stay connected with FES alumni who pursue PhD studies or work in academia abroad, the Faculty of Economic Sciences has launched a new online seminar series – the FES Alumni Brown Bag Seminar Series.

The seminars will take place every 2-3 weeks and aim at covering all research areas represented at FES, which are macro- and microeconomics, decision theory, finance, econometrics, economic history, stochastic analysis, etc. Everyone is welcome to attend!

UPCOMING MEETINGS

The third seminar will be held on June 10 by speaker Elina Ishmukhametova (FES Alumna 2022) who is currently a PhD student at the University of Lille (France).

Seminar date & time: June 10 (Tuesday) at 1 p.m. (Moscow)
Presentation title: Algorithm Attitude: an Experimental Investigation of Algorithm Delegation for Choice Tasks
Abstract: Are people willing to delegate their decisions to algorithms? This question is crucial for understanding the economic implications of AI. In this paper, we contribute to answering it by experimentally examining attitudes toward algorithmic delegation, i.e., the willingness to delegate choices to algorithms. Unlike prior research focused on forecasting or judgmental tasks, our study centers on choice tasks, where individuals make decisions based on personal preferences over lotteries. Two opposing forces may drive delegation: the desire for autonomy versus the burden of choice overload. To isolate intrinsic preferences, we equalize error rates across all treatments. Results from a preregistered study show no significant difference in willingness to delegate between human and algorithmic decision-makers, suggesting that people are not generally averse to algorithmic decision-making.
Join via this link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84338677716?pwd=74OsMCE8i0bm1wJ9vA1VADJjlazvWb.1

PREVIOUS MEETINGS

The second seminar was held on May 30 by speaker Denis Vasiliev (FES Alumnus 2022) who is currently a PhD student at the University of Luxembourg (Luxembourg).

Seminar date & time: May 30 (Friday) at 4 p.m. (Moscow)
Presentation title: Measuring Investors' Inflation Expectations Consistent with Asset Prices (joint with Benjamin Holcblat, Abraham Lioui, and Michael Weber)
Abstract: Inflation expectations from surveys depend crucially on survey design, while real-time market-based measures are distorted by the inflation risk premium. We propose a structural estimation of investors’ expected inflation consistent with equilibrium asset prices. Our macrofinance model with money in the utility predicts significant compensation for inflation risk: investors can smooth consumption over time through money holdings, but this substitution incurs the cost of foregone interest, and therefore inflation-targeting monetary policy amplifies the systematic risk. We use the asset pricing implications of our model to extract inflation expectations in the U.S. from stock and bond prices. We find evidence of a shift in the dynamics of the estimated inflation risk premium after 2000, and a post-COVID surge in long-run expectations – similar to the increase we estimate prior to the 2008 Great Recession.

The first seminar was held on May 13 by Ashot Aleksian (FES Alumnus 2019) who is currently a post-doctoral researcher at the Toulouse School of Economics (France).

Seminar date & time: May 13 (Tuesday) at 1 p.m. (Moscow)
Presentation title: The Exit-Time Problem
Abstract: This presentation addresses the exit-time problem for stochastic processes. We will focus on processes that are solutions to stochastic differential equations, which find applications in various fields such as finance, insurance, and the analysis of machine learning algorithms. The exit time is defined as the first moment when the trajectory of a stochastic process reaches the boundary of a given domain, which in our case will possess a certain invariance property. Two approaches to analyzing this problem will be discussed: the first is based on partial differential equation methods, and the second is probabilistic (or pathwise), employing ideas from the large deviations theory. The presentation will conclude with the speaker’s own contributions to the topic. The material is adapted for a broad audience familiar with the basics of stochastic analysis.
Keywords:  stochastic processes, stochastic differential equations, Freidlin–Wentzell theory