Nikolai Avkhimovich, Laboratory of Sports Studies Alumnus, Publishes an Article in Journal of Sports Economics

The paper 'Do the Coaches Adapt to Tournament Importance? Strategic Choice of Starting Squads in National Football Teams' shows that national football team coaches take a strategic approach to squad age when selecting starting lineups for tournaments of varying importance: on average, more experienced players are chosen for higher-stakes competitions.

The paper examines the strategic choices national football team coaches make when forming starting lineups for tournaments of differing significance. Drawing on theories of human age-related development and team diversity, the study empirically tests several regression models describing coaches' decisions regarding the average age and age diversity of the starting squad.

The dataset covers 32 European national teams and more than 3,000 matches played between 2014 and 2023 across different levels of competition: friendlies, continental championships, and the FIFA World Cup.

The analysis shows that coaches follow different strategies regarding the average age of the starting squad depending on the importance of the tournament. The average age of the starting squad in the final and qualifying stages of the FIFA World Cup and UEFA EURO — the most prestigious tournaments — is up to 0.8 years higher than in friendly matches.

The study also shows that the age diversity of the starting squad varies depending on the tournament in question: at the final stages of the FIFA World Cup and UEFA EURO, it is 4–6% higher than in friendly matches.

At the same time, none of the age-related parameters leads to a statistically significant increase in the probability of winning an individual match. This effect may be explained by how coaches perceive the importance of the tournament, as well as by their tendency to rely on more experienced players.


The paper is available on the Journal of Sports Economics website.