Совместный семинар лабораторий факультета экономических наук

В четверг 20 ноября состоялся совместный научный семинар Международной лаборатории макроэкономического анализа,  Научно-учебной лаборатории макроструктурного моделирования экономики России и Научно-учебной лаборатории пространственно-эконометрического моделирования социально-экономических процессов в России.

В рамках семинара Анастасия Розенсон и Андрей Дементьев (НИУ ВШЭ) представили доклад «Artificial intelligence and factor substitutability»

Аннотация доклада
This paper develops an endogenous growth model to investigate how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) affect long-term economic development by altering the substitutability between capital and labour. Departing from traditional models where technology enhances the factors’ productivities, this framework features a distinct capacity of AI to affect the elasticity of substitution itself. We analyse the endogenous R&D allocation between human capital, machine intelligence and physical capital productivity. There are two qualitatively different long-run equilibria. In the first one, physical capital and labour remain permanent technological complements, and research is always directed to human capital enhancement. In this equilibrium output grows sub-exponentially, and machine intelligence is never improved. In the alternative equilibrium with explosive output growth, research ultimately shifts towards advancing machine intelligence beyond human capabilities, driving the economy into a regime where physical capital substitutes for labour. These results offer novel theoretical underpinnings for understanding the macroeconomic implications of AI as a general-purpose technology whose nature and transformative effects are qualitatively distinct from previous technological innovations in human history.