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Участие сотрудников ИРГ ЦеПЭПМИ в конференции META 2021

Сотрудники нашей исследовательской группы приняли активное участие в VIII International Conference Modern Econometric Tools and Applications.

Конференция проходила в онлайн формате на платформе Zoom. С докладами выступили:

  • А. В. Демьяненко, тема доклада: "The impact of public health spending on economic growth in Russia: a regional aspect" (соавторы О. А. Демидова, Е. В. Каяшева)
    Аннотация
    The COVID-19 pandemic has paralyzed many sectors of the economy and has shown that the health systems of many countries were not prepared for the virus, which required a huge investment of human and material resources to sustain and rebuild the economy and mitigate the negative impact of the disease on the population. This challenge stressed the importance of investing in the promotion of quality of people’s life: in education and science - to develop innovative technologies and their more rapid implementation into mass production, in health - to create favorable living conditions and facilitate the development of the population. This investigates the influence of an increase in government healthcare expenditures on regional economic growth in Russia. Studies have shown that an increase in healthcare expenditures stimulates an increase of GDP through several channels. First, it improves the quality of labor force that can lead to an increase in labor productivity. Secondly, an increase in the productivity and size of the labor force leads to consumption extension and then to firms’ income growth, so there is a multiplication effect. Including the presupposition that a relationship between health expenditure and economic growth may be non-linear we formed the hypothesis of the existence of the average optimal share of health expenditure in GRP that maximizes average regional economic growth rate. In this study, we considered 6 main categories of expenditures of consolidated budgets of Russian regions: the share of expenditures on health care, physical culture and sport in the GRP (this is the main variable of interest), the share in GRP of general public expenditure, national economy expenditure, housing expenditure, education expenditure and social policy expenditure. Naturally, economic growth is influenced by factors other than public expenditure. Investment is one of the key drivers of economic growth (Solow, 1956), that is why the ratio of fixed investment to GRP was also included. A number of studies have shown that there are additional factors that influence economic growth: the level of urbanization (Henderson, 2003; Friedmann, 2006), the openness of the economy (Kamensky, Ivanova, 2011), the diversification of the region’s economy (Essletzbichler, 2007; Shediac, 2008), the quality of human capital (Maddison, 1991; Lutz, Samir, 2011). We have also taken into account investment attractiveness and the aggregate index of banking services in the region. In this research we suggest that an increase in healthcare expenditures, besides the direct effect on economic growth of a particular region, also affects economic growth of neighboring regions. The possible explanation of this is the positive impact of healthcare services received in the neighboring regions on nearby territories, joint national healthcare projects and distribution of scientific knowledge. Using the spatial Durbin model focusing on regional data of 2005-2018, it was shown that the average optimal share of health expenditures is 5,9% of GRP with an inclusion of spatial effects and 6,4% without them, outlining the importance of including interconnection variables between Russian regions in the model. The regional statistical analysis showed the failure to reach the recommended share by most Russian regions, which can be viewed as a possibility for future economic growth stimulation if there is an increase in government spending on healthcare.
  • E. В. Семерикова, A. О. Блохина, тема доклада: "The role of spartial effects in convergence of German regional housing markets"
    Аннотация
    The aim of this work is the convergence analysis of housing markets of German regions. We assume spatial correlation of the regions, various determinants of housing prices including migration data and its population ratio. Using data for 397 regions in 2004-2016 we asses linear and spatial econometric models for both selling and rental prices. As the determinants we use such demand factors as unemployment level, pendulum migration ratio, wages, employment rate, number of employees, gross regional product, migration flow for regions, emigration and immigration for federal lands. By the result of the analysis, we can conclude that factors which lead to personal income growth affect the prices positively and vice versa. Emigration makes the population smaller, so the demand lowers as do the prices. Immigration contrary rises the population, alike the demand and prices. Convergence of the regions exists for both selling and rental prices. The practical significance of the current work is its applicability to regional economic and migration policy formation.

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