About the Centre

Correct and scientifically grounded macroeconomic forecasts are necessary when designing and executing macroeconomic policies. The accuracy and validity of these forecasts is a key requirement for the success of a policy. Furthermore, macroeconomic forecasts are necessary for companies in the financial and real sectors of the economy. Recently, there have been only a few centers in Russia that forecast Russian macroeconomic indicators, but none of them aims to regularly report short-term forecasts of measured statistical indicators with the highest possible frequency.

Exactly for these aims, Centre for Macroeconomic Forecasting (CMF) was established on the basis of the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, whose main task is the preparation of regular (monthly) forecasts of the most important macroeconomic indicators, such as the growth rate of quarterly GDP and the monthly inflation rate CPI (for a period of up to 4 quarters) using scientifically established models.

The CMF will publish both point, interval and density forecasts. An expanded set of macroeconomic indicators can also include inflation in the index of industrial goods, the unemployment rate, the growth rates of GDP components. Forecasts of GDP growth rates and its components will be made for the next several quarters, but they will also be updated on the monthly basis using new available information.