Forecasts for GDP

Point forecasts for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are presented below :

Point forecasts for GDP growth rate

	Point forecasts for GDP growth rate
Forecasting horizon	ARIMA	ARIMA(1,1)	ETS	TBATS
Third quarter of 2018	0,91	2,17	1,94	1,76
Fourth quarter of 2018	0,91	2,68	1,94	1,57
First quarter of 2019	0,91	2,53	1,94	1,42

Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values are presented below:

	Mean Absolute Error (MAE)
Forecasting horizon	ARIMA	ARIMA(1,1)	ETS	TBATS
1 qurater	0,014304	0,010982	0,009265	0,008831
2 quarters	0,013426	0,013939	0,01456	0,013949
3 quarters	0,012502	0,009275	0,012546	0,011792

Link to download:

gdp_point_forecasts_010718_010119 .csv

gdp_g_rate_forecasts_010718_010119

gdp_g_rate_mae_010718_010119

gdp_mae_010718_010119

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Workgroup 'Centre for Macroeconomic Forecasting'

Forecasts for GDP