Состоялось очередное заседание научного семинара "Политическая экономика"

Speaker:  Andrej Krickovic  ( NRU HSE )   
Topic: "It's Not the Economy, Stupid!”  Is US-Russia Trade Really Underdeveloped?"

Politicians, pundits and experts in both Russia and the US frequently bemoan the “underdevelopment” of US-Russia trade, arguing that political factors have inhibited the development of economic ties. It is also often argued that political relations between the two countries would also be more cooperative and less conflictual if these ties developed up to their full potential. The paper seeks to test the conventional wisdom that US Russia trade is underdeveloped by employing a gravity model to measure where trade between the two countries “should” be. We find that US-Russia trade relations have actually outperformed the predictions of the model and that, in terms of its ability to live up to the predictions of the model, trade between the two countries is comparable to America's trade with countries with which it has friendly political relations, such as Poland, Turkey and Italy. These findings suggest that US-Russia trade relations actually live up to their economic potential and that the commonly held idea that political relations between Russia and the US can be dramatically improved by tapping into the “unfulfilled” promise of improved trade relations is unfounded. Conventional wisdom argues that politics has impeded the development of economic relations between the two states. But, in fact, the opposite may be true: relations between the US and Russia are characterized by rivalry and conflict because there is little solid economic grounds for more pacific relations.

Заседание состоялось 08.10.2014 в   18.15   по  адресу: г. Москва, улица Шаболовка, дом 26, корпус 4, аудитория 4322.