Состоялось очередное заседание общемосковского научного семинара "Политическая экономика"

Тема доклада: "Elections, Protest, and Investment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Russia"
Докладчики: Timothy Frye (Columbia University, HSE)

How do electoral shocks influence economic behavior? The dominant arguments suggest that political uncertainty generated by electoral shocks dampens investment. Others however suggest that political shocks produce strong partisan effects that benefit some far firms and harm others. Empirical evidence in support of these arguments is mixed, in part due to methodological difficulties. We take advantage of a natural experiment to identify the causal effects of an electoral shock by comparing the responses of firms in Russia polled just before and just after parliamentary elections on December 4, 2011. Following the poor showing of the ruling party United Russia, firms polled after the election were 9 percentage points more likely to report having plans for a major investment in the coming year than those polled before the elections. 
In addition, firms whose managers did not support the ruling party were 12 percentage points more likely to report plans for a major investment in the coming year. In addition, firm managers who were not politically connected increased their reported rate of planned investment by 11 percentage points. Thus electoral shocks need not reduce investment plans. Moreover, electoral shocks influence “partisan” firms in more or less predictable ways. This paper contributes to debates on the economic impacts of political events, the value of political connections, and the sources of secure property rights.

 

Рабочий язык: английский