Публикации

В статье анализируется вопрос о том, какова природа запросов россиян на содействие государства в сферах занятости, социального инвестирования и материальной поддержки. На основании современной теории изучения общественного мнения, социальной стратификации и рынка труда был протестирован вклад четырех механизмов: (а) демографические особенности населения, (б) доходы домохозяйств и располагаемые ресурсы, в том числе нематериальные активы, включая человеческий и социальный капитал (в) индивидуальные интересы, а также (г) социально-психологические установки. По итогам эконометрического анализа, проведённого на базе Всероссийского мониторинга ФНИСЦ РАН 2018 года, авторы пришли к выводу, что запросы на содействие государства имеют сложную природу и существует всего лишь один универсальный фактор – доход – однако его влияние носит сложный и неоднозначный характер. Данные показывают, что с повышением дохода вероятность запроса на помощь государства в области материальной поддержки только возрастает, что корреспондирует с недавними выводами зарубежных исследователей об «альтруизме богатых»; тем не менее, с ростом дохода она снижается только у россиян, которые не испытывают нужды в помощи государства в сфере занятости. Таким образом, социальная политика, построенная исключительно на монетарных инструментах, без необходимых институциональных мер на рынке труда обречена на провал с точки зрения реализации гетерогенных потребностей и интересов населения.

How do elections and post-election protest shape political trust in a competitive autocracy? Taking advantage of largely exogenous variation in the timing of a survey conducted in Moscow in 2011, we find that an election had little systematic effect on political trust, perhaps because vote improprieties were not new information. In contrast, the unexpected protest that followed increased trust in government. We argue that when autocrats permit protest unexpectedly, citizens may update their beliefs about the trustworthiness of the government. In this case, heightened trust arises largely from opposition voters - those most likely to be surprised by permission to hold the protest - who update their beliefs. Our results suggest that citizens may cue not off the content of a protest, but off the government's decision to permit it. In addition, autocrats can increase trust in government by allowing protest when it is unexpected.

The present article follows two objectives. First, to apply a recently developed spatial interaction model and discuss its power in explaining social developments. Second, to obtain information on internal migration'sdeterminants in Russia by taking into account that its eastern and western regions differ in many respects. Two alternative panel specifications are considered, labelled “spatial interaction specification with exogenous spatial lags” and “gravity-type specification with network effects”. While both specifications are designed to capture the impacts of neighbouring regions in migration dynamics, they differ with respect to the implementation of fixed effects. It is argued that neighbourhood impacts manifest themselves either as spillover effects, which amplify a variable's impact, or competition effects, which attenuate them. The results show that variables indeed differ from each other in these respects, demonstrating how migration patterns are subject to events beyond the directly involved regions, and that these are furthermore influenced by the distances between regions. In addition, the results provide further evidence that migration determinants differ for Eastern and Western Russia.

The model of the real sector of the Russian economy is presented. It allows for the separate description of GDP and its components by expenditure both in constant and in current prices. Unlike standard macroeconomic models, the model proposed considers a set of Trader agents in addition to Producer agent. Traders are based on a set of CES-functions and allow to decompose the statistics available into a set of unobserved components. The Producer is based on a specific production function that performs well for Russian data and works with financial variables, such as credits and bank accounts. In contrary to the standard approach, the model is not linearized to get estimates of model parameters but is estimated directly using a set of nonlinear equations. The optimization is performed numerically and allows to get both series of unobserved model products and their prices and model parameters. The stability of the solution found is checked on simulated data.