Публикации

The present article follows two objectives. First, to apply a recently developed spatial interaction model and discuss its power in explaining social developments. Second, to obtain information on internal migration'sdeterminants in Russia by taking into account that its eastern and western regions differ in many respects. Two alternative panel specifications are considered, labelled “spatial interaction specification with exogenous spatial lags” and “gravity-type specification with network effects”. While both specifications are designed to capture the impacts of neighbouring regions in migration dynamics, they differ with respect to the implementation of fixed effects. It is argued that neighbourhood impacts manifest themselves either as spillover effects, which amplify a variable's impact, or competition effects, which attenuate them. The results show that variables indeed differ from each other in these respects, demonstrating how migration patterns are subject to events beyond the directly involved regions, and that these are furthermore influenced by the distances between regions. In addition, the results provide further evidence that migration determinants differ for Eastern and Western Russia.

How do elections and post-election protest shape political trust in a competitive autocracy? Taking advantage of largely exogenous variation in the timing of a survey conducted in Moscow in 2011, we find that an election had little systematic effect on political trust, perhaps because vote improprieties were not new information. In contrast, the unexpected protest that followed increased trust in government. We argue that when autocrats permit protest unexpectedly, citizens may update their beliefs about the trustworthiness of the government. In this case, heightened trust arises largely from opposition voters - those most likely to be surprised by permission to hold the protest - who update their beliefs. Our results suggest that citizens may cue not off the content of a protest, but off the government's decision to permit it. In addition, autocrats can increase trust in government by allowing protest when it is unexpected.

The model of the real sector of the Russian economy is presented. It allows for the separate description of GDP and its components by expenditure both in constant and in current prices. Unlike standard macroeconomic models, the model proposed considers a set of Trader agents in addition to Producer agent. Traders are based on a set of CES-functions and allow to decompose the statistics available into a set of unobserved components. The Producer is based on a specific production function that performs well for Russian data and works with financial variables, such as credits and bank accounts. In contrary to the standard approach, the model is not linearized to get estimates of model parameters but is estimated directly using a set of nonlinear equations. The optimization is performed numerically and allows to get both series of unobserved model products and their prices and model parameters. The stability of the solution found is checked on simulated data.

В данной статье исследуются межрегиональные миграционные потоки в России с учетом их возрастных особенностей. Используя дезагрегированные по возрасту данные Всероссийской переписи населения 2010 года, произведена кластеризация межрегиональных потоков по преобладающим в их составе возрастным группам, проанализированы их направленность и согласованность, описаны общие социально-экономические характеристики потоков миграции, включенных в кластеры. В данной работе впервые на российских данных проводится анализ направлений миграции в зависимости от возраста и соответствующих ему событий жизненного цикла. Как и в других странах, мигранты в России выбирают разные места проживания в зависимости от возраста. Потоки, в которых преобладают лица разных возрастов, зачастую противоположно направленные, т.е. их миграцией управляют разные факторы.  Миграция подобна круговороту, связанным с жизненным циклом: в одних регионах люди рождаются, в другие переезжают учиться, в третьи - работать, а в четвертые - отдыхать, выйдя на пенсию. Моделирование миграции без учета этого неизбежно сталкивается с трудностями. Таким образом, при анализе, моделировании и интерпретации межрегиональной миграции в России необходимо учитывать возраст мигрантов.

We contribute to the debate on the optimal structure of Competition Authorities (CAs), a debate of particular relevance in younger developing country jurisdictions. We propose a model of a reputation-maximizing CA in which reputation is increasing with enforcement success. This predicts that generalist CAs will focus on decisions in activities with low probability of annulment and low investigation and litigation costs and that this could be detrimental to welfare (relative to the more balanced activity portfolio of specialist CAs). We use a data set of appealed decisions of the Russian CA to provide an empirical support for the model’s assumptions and predictions.

The Central Banks discuss bank recapitalization arrangements. Markup to capital is needed because the current Basel approach is insensitive to some risks. As the Basel Committee moves from comprehensive risk modelling towards a revised, simplified, standardised approach, where one-two triggers measure risk, banking regulators increase demand for a capital add-on to meet unaccounted risks. The paper suggests the add-on estimates for the joint effect of the concentration and PD-LGD correlation risks leaving other unaccounted ones out-of-scope. The previous studies estimated add-ons for each risk separately. We show their joint impact on capital can be higher up to 5.3 times than the sum of two taken apart. Then previous results do not provide sufficient capital for a bank. We obtain that Basel underestimates the joint risk in 1.9 times on average. We expect that our contribution will be useful at least but not last for specialised lending (e.g. real estate and project finance), where the joint effect of concentration and PD-LGD correlation risks is the most observable.

Non-renewable fixed-term contracts are becoming more used instead of the traditional Russian model of open-ended employment. The authors examine the influence of institutional and organizational factors on the use of fixed-term contracts in Russia with data from a Sur-vey covering 3313 enterprises for the years 2009 to 2011. Probit and Tobit regressions are used to test several hypotheses about the use of fixed-term contracts derived from the litera-ture. The results indicate that state-owned and unionized enterprises are more likely to use fixed-term contracts; and a high level of perceived dismissal protection for permanent work-ers is positively associated with fixed-term contracts use. The incidence and intensity of fixed-term contracts are lower at enterprises with flexible wages. A significant impact of or-ganizational factors is confirmed for fixed-term contracts. Enterprises use less fixed-term contracts, if they have workers with tenure from 5 to 10 years and high job complexity.

On the eve of transition in the late 1980’s the perspectives of the economic development for most economies of the Soviet Bloc in Central, Southern and Eastern Europe seemed optimistic. They had been already industrialized; their labor force was relatively healthy and educated. Being technological backwards in many industries these countries had lots of opportunities for catch up, extending international trade and allowing the inflow of foreign direct investments. However, after two decades of transition these expectations did not materialize to the fullest extent. On the one hand, by 2008, the last year before the global financial crisis, GDP per capita of all post-transition economies grew, except Moldova and Ukraine. On the other hand, six of the twenty economies of the region increased the lag behind the twelve advanced West European economies (EU12). A reasonable question in this context is to what extent is this backward take-off caused by the command-economy past or some myopic country-specific issues of the post-transition development?

                With the growth accounting framework this study confirms the leading role of total factor productivity in late transition at the aggregate level. Delving into industry levels the literature shows that, at least, for some East European economies the key driver of TFP growth in most CEE economies was manufacturing. This is not surprising, because manufacturing was also one of the most technologically backward sectors of the economy in early transition with multiple opportunities for improvements through adaptation of better practices and ways of production from the West. So, catching up in technologies seems to be the most essential driver of the post transition growth.

                At the same time, this exposition of the story of growth in transition critically depends on data quality, essential for measurement of economic growth and productivity. That is why it is important also to take into account that transition in economies of the region coincided with the transition in state statistics from the Material Product System of national accounts to the United Nations System of National Accounts. All this is important for understanding of the lim

В России активизируется алкогольная политика. Используются разнообразные меры: ценовые, ограничительные, информационные. Однако эффективность политики определяется не только изменениями объемов и внешних эффектов потребления спиртного, но и отношением к ней населения. От реакции граждан на применяемые инструменты политики зависит ее результативность. Цель данной работы - оценка уровня поддержки алкогольной политики в России и влияющих на нее факторов. Дескриптивный и регрессионный анализ данных двух опросов населения за 2011 и 2017 гг. показал, что уровень поддержки алкогольной политики достаточно высок – от 52 до 97%, в зависимости от конкретной меры. Более склонны поддерживать алкогольную политику молодые люди и женщины. Отказавшиеся от вредных привычек, а также изначально их не имевшие чаще одобряют политику в отношении спиртного, по сравнению с курильщиками и потребляющими алкоголь. Будучи в 2011 г. значимым предиктором положительного отношения к мерам алкогольной политики, образование со временем потеряло свою значимость для людей старшего возраста. В 2017 г. важной детерминантой поддержки всех применяемых мер выступает просмотр социальной рекламы. В целом, проводимая государством алкогольная политика имеет достаточную поддержку населения и хорошие перспективы дальнейшего развития.

В данной статье проводится анализ проблемы применения антимонопольных запретов и интерпретации антимонопольного законодательства в российских судах в рамках рассмотрения дел об антиконкурентных соглашениях. Статья продолжает логику предыдущего исследования в этой сфере, в котором был проведен анализ судебных дел по оспариванию решений антимонопольного органа, инициированных в 2008 -2010 годах. На основе новых данных по судебным делам за 2011-2015 годы была сформирована база данных из 646 дел, проанализированы тенденции применения антимонопольных запретов соглашений и антимонопольного законодательства в суде. Показано, как менялась структура судебных дел с точки зрения рынков и типов соглашений, используемых стандартов доказательств. Показано, что в исследуемые годы в такого рода делах фактически не применялось правило взвешенного подхода, несмотря на законодательные возможности. Отмечены тенденции снижения рисков ошибок 1 рода, в том числе для дел, связанных с государственными закупками, взаимодействием банковских и страховых организаций, также повышались требования к анализу рынка при применении антимонопольных запретов.