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Regular version of the site

Archive of Seminars

Seminar 42. Financial fair-play from the point of football clubs

Date and Time: 23 May, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231
Speaker:  Fedor Kabanov
Abstract: The academic discussion of the Financial Fair Play (FFP) rule is primarily about the consequences of this policy for individual clubs and for European football in general. The perception of FFP in the eyes of football players, coaches, directors of football clubs, sponsors and fans can differ from opinions of economists and UEFA representatives. This paper explores the opinions of football club management about FFP at the time this rule is enacted. Special attention is paid to determining the factors that influence the opinion: the strength of a club, financial capabilities, the political regime of the country which club represents and other factors. 

Seminar 41. Moneyball and incentives of players in football

Date and Time: 16 May, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231
Speaker: Daniil Shaposhnikov
Abstract: In this project, we investigate the phenomenon of Moneyball in football on the example of the German Bundesliga in the season 2017/2018. On the basis of an econometric analysis of the success factors of the football teams in a separate match and the factors that affect the transfer value of players, we test the hypothesis that the market underestimates the defending actions of players compared to the attacking actions. In addition, we continue the study of Weimar and Wicker (2017), in which authors showed that the market undervalued the efforts of football players in the form of the distance covered in match. Econometric analysis shows that the non-monetary interest of football players in the success of the team in the home derby matches is an additonal incentive to run more.

Seminar 40. The Ways of assessing the quality of passes in football

Date and Time: 25 April, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231
Speaker:  Anastasia Mityushkina
Paper: Bransen L. (2017) "Valuing passes in football using ball event data", Master Thesis on Econometrics and Management Science, Erasmus University Rotterdam
Abstract: Passes are the most frequent event in the soccer. A good pass may lead to a goal, while a poor pass may lead to loss of ball. What is a 'good' and a 'bad' pass? When can we say that one pass is better than another? The author of paper compares 3 different approaches to evaluation of passes and discusses their respective strengths and weaknesses. He also considers the ratings of players based on the estimated metrics obtained.



Seminar 39. The impact of a good start in performance in team sports

Date and Time: 18 April, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231
Speaker:  Stepan Emelianenko
Abstract: From year to year, football players, coaches and directors of teams draw attention of public to the problems of the calendar and the difficulties that it creates for their teams. Representatives of teams complain about the difficult start - a segment of matches with strong opponents or a lack of time for rest. We will consider several studies on the impact of the calendar on the performances of the teams, and will try to identify how justified such statements and complaints are.



Seminar 38. Choking Under Pressure in Front of a Supportive Audience: Evidence from Professional Biathlon 

Date and Time: 11 April, 14:00-15:30
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4406
Speaker:  Alex Krumer
Abstract: Performing in front of a supportive audience increases motivation. However, it also creates a psychological pressure, which may impair performance, especially in precision tasks. In this paper, we exploit a unique setting in which professionals compete in a real-life contest with high monetary rewards in order to assess how they perform in front of a supportive audience. Using the task of shooting in sprint competitions of professional biathlon events over the period of sixteen years, we find that within each gender, biathletes from the top quartile of ability distribution miss significantly more shots when competing in their home country compared to competing abroad. Our results are in line with the hypothesis that high expectations to perform well in front of a friendly environment induce individuals to choke when performing skill-based tasks. 

Seminar 37. The influence of air polution on results of marathons

Date and Time: 4 April, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231
Speaker: Arthur Assanskiy

Paper: Guo, M., & Fu, S. (2017). Running with a Mask? The Effect of Air Pollution on Marathon Runners’ Performance. Journal of Sports Economics, 1527002518822701.
Abstract: Nowadays there is a great attention to the problem of air pollution. How does this global problem affect professional athletes? The study assessed the impact of air pollution on the results of marathon runners using a sample of more than 300,000 people who ran in 37 cities and in 56 marathons in China in 2014 and 2015. Is the problem that critical that runners need to wear masks?

Seminar 36. The influence of player's performance on his transfer value: example from football stock market

Date and time: 28 March, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231

Speaker Philip Kaminskiy 

Abstract: This work is devoted to the investigation of factors that change transfer value of soccer player. The study is conducted on the data of the prices of virtual shares of football players that are traded on the football stock market (Football Index), and on the market values ​​of the players, which are calculated by professional analysts from the International Center for Sports Studies (CIES).

Seminar 35. International success in football and national institutions

Date and Time: 21 March, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, Building 3, 3231

SpeakerMaria Yusova
Leeds, M. A., & Marikova Leeds, E. (2009). International soccer success and national institutions. Journal of Sports Economics, 10(4), 369-390.

At the beginning of the 21st century, several researchers and journalists empirically discovered the relationship between institutional structure of country and its development of football. The authors decided to use econometric methods to analyse the hypotheses about the relationship of football success (measured by number of points scored in the FIFA rating) and the institutional structure of country. In particular, they considered the regime of the country, the colonial heritage and resource-orientedness of economy.

Seminar 34. Adaptation of soccer players after transfering to other country

Date and Time: 14 March, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, Building 3, 3231

SpeakerMaxim Vavulin 
In my work, I analyse various factors that influence success of a football player in the first season after moving to another country.The data of transfers in the top-5 European leagues in 2015/16 and 2016/17 seasons has been collected. The transfer value of football player after moving to new club is analysed, using factors such as age, form during transfer, the acquainatnce with a new country and knowledge of language.

Seminar 33. Building calendar for belgian soccer league

Date and time: 7 march, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231

Speaker: Andrey Parxomenko
 Goossens, D., & Spieksma, F. (2009). Scheduling the Belgian soccer league. Interfaces39(2), 109-118. 

Every year, television companies increase the cost of purchasing broadcasting rights of tournaments, and the  calendar of league becomes more significant in the context of economic benefits. In addition to the obvious impact on the outcome of the games, the schedule is one of the determinants of  attendance, popularity of competition and the profitability of broadcasters, sponsors and advertisers. Building a calendar that satisfies the requirements of all parties is a difficult task. The article briefly summarizes some unique factors that should be taken into account in various countries of Europe and South America, and the main part of the work is devoted to the description of the development of the calendar for the Belgian Football League.

Seminar 32. Ideas from football for traders: The impact of expectations, match importance, and results in the stock prices

Date and Time: 28 February, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231

Speaker: Garik Vardanyan
Godinho, P., & Cerqueira, P. (2018). The impact of expectations, match importance, and results in the stock prices of European football teams. Journal of Sports Economics19(2), 230-278.

The authors analyze the relation between stock returns and results in national league matches for 13 clubs of six European countries. Authors assumed that the stock prices should only respond to the unexpected component of match results, and used betting odds to separate the expected component of results from the unexpected one. They consider both the unweighted results and the results weighted by a new measure of match importance that they propose. When this measure is used, a significant relation between the results and stock performance is found for most teams.

Seminar 31. Moneyball in football in the example of covered distance in match

Date and Time: 21 February, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231

Speaker: Maksim Stupin
Weimar, D., & Wicker, P. (2014). Moneyball Revisited: Effort and Team Performance in Professional Soccer. Journal of Sports Economics,18(2), 140–161. Wicker, P., Prinz, J., Weimar, D., Deutscher, C. (2013). No Pain, No Gain? Effort and Productivity in Professional Soccer. International Journal of Sport Finance, 8(2), 124-139.

In his book “Moneyball” Michael Lewis describes the inefficiency of the labor market in baseball, where athletes are underpaid for some effective actions. In the articles that we will discuss, authors explore the “Moneyball” in football on the data of the Bundesliga (1514 matches). Their main conclusion is that the efforts of the athletes expressed in the distance covered in match, contribute to the victory of the team and athletes do not get paid differently for those efforts.

Seminar 30. Compensating tendencies in penalty kick decisions of referees in professional football: Evidence from the German Bundesliga 1963–2006

Date and Time: 14 February, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3231
Speaker: Egor Zaytsev
Paper: Schwarz, W. (2011). Compensating tendencies in penalty kick decisions of referees in professional football: Evidence from the German Bundesliga 1963–2006. Journal of sports sciences, 29(5), 441-447.
Abstract: With the database of more than 12000 matches of German Bundesliga authors show that matches with 2 or more penalties are more frequent than expected. In these 441 matches there are more cases when each team gets one penalty in comparison to scenario when only one team receives penalty. Additional analysis, based on the score of match before penalty and the time of penalty, suggests that when a team receives penalty the probability of getting second penalty in the same match is decreasing, while the probability that opponent will receive penalty increases.

Seminar 29. How competition can be worse for consumers than a monopoly (for example, TV-rights to show Premier League matches)

Date and Time: 7 February, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 5, 5407
Speaker: Igor Tylkin
Paper: Butler, R., & Massey, P. (2018). Has Competition in the Market for Subscription Sports Broadcasting Benefited Consumers? The Case of the English Premier League. Journal of Sports Economics
Abstract: English Premier League is one of the most popular football tournaments in the world. The high level of teams and the presence of worldclass players is partially due to huge TV-contracts. How did the system of contracts develop and how has it changed since the creation of the Premier League? We will discuss these questions during the seminar. We will talk about the past period of monopoly on broadcasting games of EPL, how the monopoly was cancelled and why after that the prices for spectating the matches did not decrease.

Seminar 28. Competitive intensity and quality maximizing seedings in knock-out tournaments

Date and Time: 31 January, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238
Speaker: Dmitry Dagaev
Paper: Dagaev, D., & Suzdaltsev, A. (2018). Competitive intensity and quality maximizing seedings in knock-out tournaments. Journal of Combinatorial Optimization35(1), 170-188.
Abstract: Before a knock-out tournament starts, the participants are assigned to positions in the tournament bracket through a process known as seeding. There are many ways to seed a tournament. In this paper, we solve a discrete optimization problem of finding a seeding that maximizes spectator interest in a tournament when spectators are interested in matches with high competitive intensity (i.e., matches that involve teams comparable in strength) and high quality (i.e., matches that involve strong teams). We find a solution to the problem under two assumptions: the objective function is linear in quality and competitive intensity and a stronger team beats a weaker one with sufficiently high probability. Depending on parameters, only two special classes of seedings can be optimal. While one of the classes includes a seeding that is often used in practice, the seedings in the other class are very different. When we relax the assumption of linearity, we find that these classes of seedings are in fact optimal in a sizable number of cases. In contrast to existing literature on optimal seedings, our results are valid for an arbitrarily large number of participants in a tournament.

Seminar 27. The assessment of population's readiness to pay for hosting a major international sports event ex-ante and ex-post

Date and Time: 24 January, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3230

SpeakerDaniil Shaposhnikov
Paper: de Boer, W. I., Koning, R. H., & Mierau, J. O. (2019). Ex ante and ex post willingness to pay for hosting a large international sport event. Journal of Sports Economics20(2), 159-176.
The topic of hosting sporting mega-events is currently acute. A number of countries withdraw their applications for holding major competitions due to the dissatisfaction of local residents since the costs exceed the direct benefits. Because of this, previous studies in this area have focused on the assessment of the intangible benefits of such activities. They used to estimate the hypothetical amount that the population is willing to pay for the event. Most of the research on this topic is done by assessing this amount before the competition. This study aims to make this valuation before and after the event. Authors also aim to identify the factors that affect the change of value. They consider the example of the Giro D’Italia cycling race in the Netherlands (2016).

Seminar 26. Project “Evaluation of effectivness of passes in football”

Date and Time: 17 January, 19:40-21:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 3, 3230
Authors: Gleb Vasilyev, Anastasiya Mityushkina, Artyom Gext
Speaker: Artyom Gext

Despite the development of the analysis of the mechanism of the game in modern football, the player in front of the opponents' goal still does not have any universal instructions of how to increase the probability of scoring a goal. In this paper, we will offer possible approaches to assessing the efficiency of passes and we will check whether the implementation of a special type of pass before the strike affects the final result. By special type of pass, we mean passes that cross the vertical line that connects centers of football goals. 

Seminar 25. The final concert of laboratory 

Date and Time: 20 December, 19:40-22:00
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 5, 5214

At the anniversary seminar of the laboratory, we will conclude the work of student projects during the last six months, since the establishment of the laboratory. Each project will present its interim results during the 15-minute presentation. All participants of the seminar will be able to take part in the voting, according to which the authors of the best project will receive the audience award.

Seminar 24. The mechanisms of defining compensation amount for resigning with football player or club 

Date and Time: 13 December, 19:40-21:00
: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
SpeakerBredikhin Artyom
Paper: Prokopec M. A. , Rogachev D. I. «Resolution of football disputes: an analysis of the practice of the FIFA, RFU and the CAS (city of Lausanne)"

In which jurisdiction body is it more profitable for a football player/club to seek protection of their rights? Why do the FIFA regulatory norms not contain a universal formula for calculating compensation, which would work for all disputes about the violation of the principle of contract stability? Why is the calculation of compensation for the club and football player significantly different? What is the specificity of the case-by-case principle when considering labor disputes by FIFA and CAS arbitrators? Raising such issues, firstly, will help to understand the mechanism of determining the amount of compensation for termination of a contract with a football player/club, and, secondly, it will clearly demonstrate the exotic nature of sports law in comparison with other, more traditional industries.

Seminar 23. Factors of success in Formula-1

Date and Time: 6 December, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Artur Assanskiy
Paper: Bell, A., Smith, J., Sabel, C. E., & Jones, K. (2016). Formula for success: Multilevel modelling of Formula One Driver and Constructor performance, 1950–2014. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports12(2), 99-112. 

Who is the best pilot in Formula-1's history? What is more important: talent or speed of the car? Which tracks show best the abilities of riders? How to compare different generations of athletes? These questions have always interested fans from all over the world. In this article, with the help of a special statistical model, scientists respond to questions of fans and make their ranking of the best pilots of Formula 1.

Seminar 22. Incentives for doping in sport

Date and Time: 29 November, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Maksim Stupin
Paper: Buechel, B., Emrich, E., & Pohlkamp, S. (2016). Nobody’s Innocent. Journal of Sports Economics, 17(8), 767–789.  

Fans like no one else are interested in honesty and purity of sport. However, the authors of the article come to the conclusion that spectator interest only aggravates the problem of doping in sport, creating negative incentives for athletes and anti-doping organizations. The authors build a game-theoretic model with imperfect information, which shows that everyone is responsible for the problem of doping: athletes, anti-doping organizations and the audience. Authors also suggest ways to partially solve the problem.

Seminar 21. The influence of calendar on team performance 

Date and Time: 15 November, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Andrey Parxomenko

Every year, both football coaches and players make a lot of negative remarks about the people who make the calendar for the season. But does the schedule of matches really affect the position of teams in the final standings, or are these statements groundless and reflect only an emotional background? In our work, we study the impact of consecutive matches on the team, taking into account the strength of the opponent, time to recover and a number of other factors.

Seminar 20. Why in any tournament there are meaningless matches

Date and Time: 8 November, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
SpeakerIgor Karpov
Paper: Faella, M., & Sauro, L. (2018, July). Do all Tournaments Admit Irrelevant Matches?. In Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems (pp. 982-989). International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems.

The match, the outcome of which in no way influences the outcome of the tournament, is always undesirable for the organizers since the teams play very passively, and sometimes even put up reserve squads for it. It simply doesn't have intrigue or spectacle, for which the fans come. Marko Faella and Luigi Sauro of the Friedrich II University of Neapolitan this summer published an article, where for the first time substantial attention was given to this aspect of the competition. They tried to answer whether is it possible to avoid such matches in the classic tournaments and how in that case the schedule should be made?

Seminar 19. The influence of external factors on the effectiveness of player after transferring to the new team 

Date and Time: 1 November, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Maksim Vavulin

The seminar will be about a review of the literature on the topic "The influence of external factors on the effectiveness of player after transferring to the new team". Literature review consists of 2 parts: consideration of the transfer market as a whole and the factors of success of a football player.

Seminar 18. The irrationalities in decisions of managers of NBA

Date and Place: 25 October, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Danil Shaposhnikov
Papers: Berri, D.J., Brook, S.L., and Schmidt, M.B., (2007). Does One Simply Need to Score to Score?, International Journal of Sports Finance, 2(4):190-205
Staw, B. M., & Hoang, H. (1995). Sunk costs in the NBA: Why draft order affects playing time and survival in professional basketball. Administrative Science Quarterly40(3), 474-494.

Sport is an industry that contains a wealth of information. An abundance of data should allow managers to make the most informed decisions. But is data really used effectively? The Moneyball example showed that the performance metrics of individuals can be greatly underestimated by the market. Therefore people who first discover these inefficiencies are able to take advantage of them. In the articles reviewed, the authors check hypotheses regarding the rationality of decisions made in basketball: do managers in the NBA pay extreme attention to the number of points scored when evaluating players? Does the number of the draft of the player influence his future?

Seminar 17. "Moneyball" and incentives of soccer players

Date and Time: 18 October, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Inna Zayceva

The term "Moneyball" was first introduced in baseball, when Mickle Louis found out that there are certain skills of players which are undervalued by the market. Later on in football, there was found evidence that effort of players, measured by the covered distance, was also undervalued. In the absence of proper financial motivation for such efforts, the question arises about the incentives of players to make efforts. The hypothesis that can be formulated in this connection is that players can express their loyalty to the club by increasing the level of effort in matches that are principal for the club. One of the criteria of the principality is the status of the derby. The hypothesis is tested on the data of the Bundesliga matches from the 2017-2018 season. 

Seminar 16. World Cup in Saransk: Conditions for healthy lifestyle and development of business

Date and Time: 11 October, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Maksim Markin, Darya Manjos, Ekaterina Zakharova (NRU HSE)

Saransk is one of the host cities of World Cup 2018. In contrast to other big host cities, the capital of Mordovia has never taken part in such massive events. How developed was the sports infrastructure of Saransk before the World Cup? How developed is the amateur and professional sport there? What are the short-term and long-term consequences of World Cup for small and medium businesses in the capital of Mordovia? The  report is based on results of expedition "Social and  Economic changes in the life of Russian city during the World Cup 2018 (example of Saransk)" 

Seminar 15. Can you beat the corruption?

Date and Time: 4 October, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Anastasia Mityushkina 
Paper: Daumann, F., Wassermann, A., & Wunderlich, A. C. (2013). Towards More Fairness: Forbid IOC Vote Trading. Applied Economics Quarterly59(4), 295-309.

Can you beat the corruption? In the last decade, the Olympic committee's decisions about the city in which to organize games were followed with big corruption scandals. Nowadays the committee considers several actions to beat corruption.  Besides some straightforward solutions, such as "making consequences more severe" or " making the organization and sale of TV rights more transparent" there is a very surprising solution -  "to allow trade of votes". How can this measure fight the problem?

Seminar 14. The Advantage of home field

Date and Time: 27 September, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Artyom Gext
Papers: Inan, T. (2018). Analyzing the Home-Field Advantage in Major European Football Leagues; Pollard, R. (1986). Home advantage in soccer: A retrospective analysis. Journal of sports sciences4(3), 237-248.

How important is the factor of the home field at soccer and how it influences the game in different countries around the world? How does this factor change when teams are from the same city?

Seminar 13. Basking in reflected glory

Date and Time: 20 September, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Emelianenko Stepan
Paper: Cialdini, R. B., Borden, R. J., Thorne, A., Walker, M. R., Freeman, S., & Sloan, L. R. (1976). Basking in reflected glory: Three (football) field studies. Journal of personality and social psychology34(3), 366.

How often do you speak on behalf of the team you support? For example, Russians may say that they came out in 1/4 of the 2018 World Cup. Zenit fans will say that nothing would have happened if it were not for their Dzuba. CSKA fans will say: “This is our Igor who helped the team pass Spain national team,” and Lokomotiv fans will brush aside and say that they are generally champions. The authors in the article find out whether such statements are an attempt to identify themselves with a team or only with its successes? Is it true that fans speak in the first person about defeats and setbacks, too? 

Seminar 12. Racial discrimination among NBA referees

Date and Time: 14 September, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4413.
Speaker: Vardanyan Garik
Статья: Price, J., & Wolfers, J. (2010). Racial discrimination among NBA referees. The Quarterly Journal of Economics125(4), 1859-1887.

Are the NBA referees affected by their race and race of players? The authors of the article find out that the race of the referees has an impact on the number of awarded fouls against players of other races. This impact is quite large and changes the outcome of many matches. Using game data from the 1991–1992 season to the 2003–2004 season,  authors show that white referees whistle on average more fouls against black players, and black referees against white players.

Seminar 11. The Peculiar Economics of Professional Sport

Date and Time: 6 September, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Yusova Maria
Paper: Neale, W. (1964). The Peculiar Economics of Professional Sport. Quarterly Journal of Economics78(1), 1-14.

As you know, being a complete monopolist is an ideal market position for any company. However, if we consider the sports club as an example of a firm, it will become obvious that its interests in many ways are contrary to traditional ideas. The championship, which only one team time after time wins, will not be interesting to the fans. Sports organizations are interested in the existence of competition and rivalry since the struggle with strong rivals increases the entertainment, and, consequently, the income of clubs. Hence the question arises, does this mean that, contrary to all economic laws, there is a business for which the monopoly is not profitable?

Seminar 10. Predicting wins and spread in the Premier League using sentiment analysis of twitter

Date and Time: 31 August, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker:  Egor Zaycev
Paper: Schumaker, R. P., Jarmoszko, A. T., & Labedz Jr, C. S. (2016). Predicting wins and spread in the Premier League using sentiment analysis of twitter. Decision Support Systems88, 76-84.

It is not a secret that many fans like to tweet about upcoming soccer matches, make their forecasts, tell their feeling about the future match. Authors find out, whether you can forecast the result of match basing your predictions on tweets about this match before the game. They also research whether these tweets correlate with coefficients of betting agencies and can you make a profit by using tweets for betting.

Seminar 9. Quantifying the relation between performance and success in soccer

Date and Time: 17 August, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Gleb Vasilyev
Paper: Pappalardo, L., Cintia, P. (2017). Quantifying the relation between performance and success in soccer. Advances in complex systems,  20 (4).

It is known that football teams which are most successful in terms of achieving results in a competition usually score more goals than their opponents. But does other statistics of the team, considered in aggregate, affect the result? To answer this question, the authors of the paper introduce a multidimensional vector of features responsible for various technical and tactical actions. Further, they investigate the relationship between the coordinates of this vector and the number of points of the team at the end of the season. They build ML models to predict the outcome of the match based on this vector of signs and use it to simulate several national championships. At the seminar, we will understand the approaches used and the results obtained by the authors.

Seminar 8. Inefficiency in the e-sport betting market

Date and Time: 3 August, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4224.
Speaker: Egor Stoyan (HSE, NES) 

The report focuses on the inefficiency of the e-sports betting market. Its goal is to answer the following questions:
1. Is the betting market effective?
2. Is it possible to beat the market using its inefficiency?
3. Is it true that fans support not only the team but also market inefficiencies? 

Seminar 7. Professionals Play Minimax

Date and Time: 20 July, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Igor Tylkin
Paper: Palacios-Huerta, I. (2003). Professionals play minimax. The Review of Economic Studies70(2), 395-415.

In the previous seminar, we considered unique playing styles of teams. Sometimes it is very successful, but frequently teams cannot find the winner in the first 90 minutes and in the extra time, so they should play penalty shootout. Many people consider penalty as a lottery. We will look into the paper "Professionals Play Minimax" and see whether we can analyze penalties. The advantage of paper is that on one hand there is a strong base from game theory and on the other hand a huge amount of empirical data.   

Seminar 6. Searching for a Unique Style in Football

Date and Time: 4 July, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Arseniy Stolyarov
Paper: Gyarmati, L., Kwak, H., & Rodriguez, P. (2014). Searching for a unique style in soccer. arXiv preprint arXiv:1409.0308.

We frequently say that team has its unique style. But can we move from subjective evaluation to a certain function that defines playing style using data from the game?  The authors solve this problem, by analyzing the chains of passes between players. Turns out, that even Catalan ticky-tacka is not improvisation, but it is ordered combination.

Seminar 5. The paradox of crosses in association football (soccer) – a game-theoretic explanation

Date and Time: 22 June, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Stepan Emelianenko
Paper: Sarkar, S. (2018). The paradox of crosses in association football (soccer)–a game-theoretic explanation. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports14(1), 25-36.

In association football, crosses from the wide areas of the pitch in the attacking third is a standard tactic for creating goal-scoring opportunities. But recent studies show that crosses adversely impact goals. A regression run in this paper on data from the premier soccer leagues of England, Spain, Germany, France, and Italy for 2016–2017 season also found this inverse relation. However, there is no research that explains the reason for this inverse relation between crosses and goals. A game-theoretical model developed in this paper explains why crosses adversely affect goal-scoring. The model identifies a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium (MSNE), wherein the attacking team’s probability of playing a cross decreases with an increase in their crossing accuracy, heading accuracy and probability of winning aerial balls. If the attacking team is good in terms of these parameters, the defending team’s probability of using an offside trap increases and that forces the attacking team to use crosses less frequently. In the MSNE, teams with a greater chance of scoring from crosses use the crosses less frequently than teams having a smaller chance of scoring from crosses. The theory was subsequently validated using the data of the 2016–2017 football season.

Seminar 4. The data of competitive marathons as a subject of research

Date and Time: 6 June, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Aleksey Chernov (base.probeg.org)

The running movement in Russia is keenly growing and this growth will probably continue, but the share of people running around, for example, in the USA is about 100 times greater than in Russia. I will tell about what types of data of the results of the competition runs we manage to collect, what problems arise during the data collection and processing, what can be extracted from this data, (but it seems that listeners will be able to come up with more ideas than we have had so far) and to whom the results of such studies might be interesting.  

Seminar 3. Analysis of the influence of attractiveness on the transfer value of soccer players

Date and Time: 31 May, 19:40-21:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Victoria Bolgova, Maya Vinopal, Natalya Nikitina, Tatyana Pustoxina (Moscow State University) 

In this paper, we consider the determinants of football players’ transfer values. The data for analysis is from the transfer window of season 17/18 of European football leagues (La Liga, Premier League and Bundesliga 1). The variable of interest in the study is the external attractiveness of a football player. Using the Heckman procedure, the following results were obtained: attractiveness does not affect the decision to buy a player for money or sign him as a free agent, but it significantly affects the observed characteristic — the value of the transfer. 

Seminar 2. Information Technologies of the data analysis. Soccer

Date and Time: 22 May, 18:30-20:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Vyacheslav Aleksandrovich Godik (Russian Football Union) 

The seminar «Information Technologies of the data analysis. Soccer» is dedicated to results, which was and can be obtained with modern informational technologies. By modern technologies lecturer means the equipment, which helps to gather primary data, while by information technologies he implies software or simply application programs, which helps to process raw data and gather information for specialists.  To prepare for the lecture, I searched for its topic in Google.  It showed more than 19’000’000 pages, which somehow contained the words from the topic. Modern society can be considered informational and football isn't exclusion from it. Nowadays in every soccer club, apart from standard office equipment, such as a printer, scanner or internet, there are specialized computer programs, which are used inside hardware equipment. These types of equipment are mostly for medical purposes (Polar Team System) and mostly play an expert role, by helping managers to pick the squad.  

Seminar 1. Losing to win: Tournament incentives in the National Basketball Association

Date and Time: 18 May, 18:30-20:00.
Place: Shabolovka, 26, building 4, 4238.
Speaker: Artyom Poxmelnix (NRU HSE, NES)
Paper: Taylor, B. A. and Trogdon, J. G. (2002). Losing to win: Tournament incentives in the National Basketball Association. Journal of Labor Economics20(1), 23-41.

The focus of tournament models has been rank-order compensation schemes whereby participants receive higher payments for higher relative performance, either incrementally or winner-takes-all. Our research focuses on a unique tournament that offers rewards for both winning and losing, specifically the National Basketball Association's regularly scheduled season of games. We examine three NBA seasons to determine whether team performance responded to changes in the underlying tournament incentives provided by the NBA's introduction and restructuring of the lottery system to determine draft order. Our results yield strong evidence that NBA teams are more likely to lose when incentives to lose are present.


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