Статья сотрудника ИРГ в журнале Applied Econometrics

Gorskiy Dmitriy, 2024. "The Maternity Capital programs in Russia and the second birth spacing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 75, pages 117-141.

The paper utilises survival analysis to study the role of a Maternity Capital program, introduced in 2007 in Russia to stimulate families to have a second birth (or adopt a second child), in changing the birth spacing between the first and the second child. The empirical study is carried out on the microdata of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring survey over 2000– 2019, the regional-level data from Rosstat and the data on the region's Maternity Capital programs by years from the open sources. The identification strategy compares birth spacing (via estimation of second childbirth hazards) before and after the introduction of the Maternity Capital program. The methods used do not allow us to isolate the impact of policy and timefixed effects such as macro shocks. However, we implemented a test to check for no fertility trends in the pre-policy period. We also control for a wide range of personal and regional characteristics. Results are robust to different metrics (proportional hazard and accelerated failure time), functional forms (parametric and non-parametric) and subsamples (married women and working women). We find that the indexation of the federal Maternity Capital program leads to a 2.1 % increase in the hazard of a second birth. The paper also tests the role of regional programs in addition to the federal-level program. We show that regional Maternity Capital programs also affect the probability of a second birth, and the estimated effect is two times bigger than for the federal program.


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