HSE Seminar on Political Economy: Anastasia Burkovskaya (University of Sydney) about Electoral Model and Ballot Stuffing

Anastasia Burkovskaya introduced a model of electoral choice that allows for derivation of joint distribution of turnout and voter share from unobservable joint distribution of costs of voting and preferences over candidates. Under a set of mild assumptions, she showed non-parametric identification of joint distribution of costs of voting and preferences over candidates from observable data on single elections/referendum.

Topic: Identification of Electoral Model and Ballot Stuffing 

Abstract:

This paper introduces a model of electoral choice that allows for derivation of joint distribution of turnout and voter share from unobservable joint distribution of costs of voting and preferences over candidates. Under a set of mild assumptions, we show non-parametric identification of joint distribution of costs of voting and preferences over candidates from observable data on single elections/referendum. We also offer an extension of the model that helps to identify ballot stuffing type of electoral fraud. In addition, we offer an empirical illustration of the model estimation using 2011 Russian parliamentary election data.

the seminar of Higher School of Economics on political economy was held on June 29.

Moderators: Alexei Zakharov (HSE), Konstantin Sonin (HSE, The University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy)