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Семинар 4. Ведет ли экономическое неравенство к войнам? (Александр Демин)

21 марта в 18:00 Александр Демин выступит с докладом о влиянии экономического неравенства на решение государства о вступлении в войны при разных политических режимах.

Адрес: ул. Шаболовка, д. 26, ауд. 5208

Wars have persisted through time as well as war-proneness of states. Existing explanations of involvement in interstate conflicts neglect two important factors: economic inequality as a long-term determinant of individuals’ behavior and political regime – a set of institutions, conveying political decisions. I build a formal model of a political elite’s decision to engage in an interstate dispute, accounting for inequality and regime conditions. The results show economic inequality is non-linearly connected to war-proneness of states, increasing the probability of war engagement under medium levels of inequality. Political regime dramatically affects this relation: medium economic inequality makes democratic regimes more inclined to wars, as compared to respectively autocratic states. Under low levels of inequality, those regimes are similar in their motivations to engage in wars. Using panel data for 92 countries in 1980-2003 and multilevel logit models, I find that empirical data strongly supports the theoretical hypotheses.