Global Economic Policies under Fat Tail Risks

2024/2025

Учебный год

ENG

Обучение ведется на английском языке

Кредиты

Кто читает:

Департамент теоретической экономики

Статус:

Курс по выбору

Когда читается:

4-й курс, 3 модуль

Преподаватель

Гилман Мартин Грант

Course Syllabus

Abstract

There is a significant probability that many OECD countries are stumbling into a period of financial dislocation. Numerous indicators show that macro imbalances are at a tipping point, such as the public debt in the US going parabolic at now over 120% of GDP, with interest costs higher than defense spending. The unwillingness and/or inability of the major economic powers to confront the imbalances that led to the financial crisis of 2007-8 have laid the basis for an even worse repetition. The danger is that the confluence of slow real growth, low productivity increases, inflated asset prices, and especially much higher public debt in many of the major G20 economies cannot be sustained any longer. Ironically, Russia is one of the few exceptions. The Bank for International Settlements, among others, has been expressing its concerns that collectively we have been unable to constrain the build-up of financial imbalances, leading to a progressive narrowing of policy options. In this mini-course we will try to analyze why the financial bubble is starting to burst more than 15 years after the end of the last crisis, and why now? How was it possible to delay this outcome for so long? What policy tools were used? Why are they no longer working? What are the remaining policy options now? It may come as some relief to know that nobody in the profession seems to know the answer to these questions.

Learning Objectives

• to develop your own assessment of whether the global economy is experiencing a bubble of historic proportions or is struggling through a long period of secular stagnation. It may come as some relief to know that nobody seems to know the answer to these questions, even those responsible for economic policy in major countries
• to appeciate how these developments may be relevant to your own career and future prospects

Expected Learning Outcomes

• develop analytical skills in applying theory to empirical aspects of the economic issues in the current international economy
• recognition that there may be no correct answers on an a priori basis to many of the critical questions about growth, employment and inflation
• — develop analytical skills in applying theory to empirical aspects of the main economic issues in the current international economy
• — recognition that there may be no correct answers on an a priori basis to many of the critical questions about growth, employment and inflation

Course Contents

• Week 1 – 15 January 2025
• Week 2 – 22 January 2025
• Week 3 – 29 January 2025
• Week 4 – 5 February 2025
• Week 5 – 12 February 2025
• Week 6 – 19 February 2025
• Week 7 – 26 February 2025

Assessment Elements

• Attendance
• Participation
• Midterm
• Final exam

Interim Assessment

• 2024/2025 3rd module
  0.1 * Attendance + 0.7 * Final exam + 0.15 * Midterm + 0.05 * Participation

Bibliography

Recommended Additional Bibliography

• Ben S. Bernanke. (2012). The Great Moderation. Book Chapters. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.h.hoo.bookch.4.6

Authors

• Gilman Martin Grant
• ISKHAKOVA ENZHE ELDAROVNA
• SHELOVANOVA TATYANA IVANOVNA