Publications

The present article follows two objectives. First, to apply a recently developed spatial interaction model and discuss its power in explaining social developments. Second, to obtain information on internal migration'sdeterminants in Russia by taking into account that its eastern and western regions differ in many respects. Two alternative panel specifications are considered, labelled “spatial interaction specification with exogenous spatial lags” and “gravity-type specification with network effects”. While both specifications are designed to capture the impacts of neighbouring regions in migration dynamics, they differ with respect to the implementation of fixed effects. It is argued that neighbourhood impacts manifest themselves either as spillover effects, which amplify a variable's impact, or competition effects, which attenuate them. The results show that variables indeed differ from each other in these respects, demonstrating how migration patterns are subject to events beyond the directly involved regions, and that these are furthermore influenced by the distances between regions. In addition, the results provide further evidence that migration determinants differ for Eastern and Western Russia.

 

The chapter analyzes the influence of K. Marx's "Capital" on reformist Populism, legal Marxism and Katheder-sozialismus in Russia. Special attention is paid to heated discussions about the stages of Russia's economic development in comparison with Western Europe. 

Ufnarovski remarked in 1990 that it is unknown whether any finitely presented associative algebra of linear growth is automaton, that is, whether the set of normal words in the algebra form a regular language. If the algebra is graded, then the rationality of the Hilbert series of the algebra follows from the affirmative answer to Ufnarovski’s question. Assuming that the ground field has a positive characteristic, we show that the answer to Ufnarovskii’s question is positive for graded algebras if and only if the basic field is an algebraic extension of its prime subfield. Moreover, in the “only if” part we show that there exists a finitely presented graded algebra of linear growth with irrational Hilbert series. In addition, over an arbitrary infinite basic field, the set of Hilbert series of the quadratic algebras of linear growth with 5 generators is infinite. Our approach is based on a connection with the dynamical Mordell–Lang conjecture. This conjecture describes the intersection of an orbit of an algebraic variety endomorphism with a subvariety. We show that the positive answer to Ufnarovski’s question implies some known cases of the dynamical Mordell– Lang conjecture. In particular, the positive answer for a class of algebras is equivalent to the Skolem–Mahler–Lech theorem which says that the set of the zero elements of any linear recurrent sequence over a zero characteristic field is the finite union of several arithmetic progressions. In particular, the counterexamples to this theorem in the positive characteristic case give examples of algebras with irrational Hilbert series.

As a result of the climate change the situation in Arctic area leads to several important consequences. On the one hand, fossil fuels can be exploited much easier than before. On the other hand, their excavation leads to serious potential threats to fishing by changing natural habitats which in turn creates serious damage to the countries’ economies. Another set of problems arises due to the extension of navigable season for shipping routes. Thus, there are already discussions on how should resources be allocated among countries. In Aleskerov and Victorova (An analysis of potential conflict zones in the Arctic Region, HSE Publishing House, Moscow, 2015) a model was presented analyzing preferences of the countries interested in natural resources and revealing potential conflicts among them. We present several areas allocation models based on different preferences over resources among interested countries. As a result, we constructed several allocations where areas are assigned to countries with respect to the distance or the total interest, or according to the procedure which is counterpart of the Adjusted Winner procedure. We consider this work as an attempt to help decision-making authorities in their complex work on adjusting preferences and conducting negotiations in the Arctic zone. We would like to emphasize that these models can be easily extended to larger number of parameters, to the case when some areas for some reasons should be excluded from consideration, to the case with ‘weighted’ preferences with respect to some parameters. And we strongly believe that such models and evaluations based on them can be helpful for the process of corresponding decision making.

In this paper we describe a methodology that allows researchers to measure empirically, in the form of well-defined indicators, the extent to which economic analysis and evidence is been applied in the enforcement of competition law, using data collected from the decisions of competition authorities. By mapping the value of these indicators to different legal standards, our methodology also allows one to identify the legal standards adopted in the assessment of different conducts that were investigated by the authorities. The policy implications of empirical work in this area are potentially very important, since the extent to which economic analysis is applied in the assessment of anti-competitive conduct by competition authorities may well influence the quality of this assessment (i.e. the quality of enforcing competition law, measured by the extent to which decision-errors and deterrence effects are minimised). Empirical analysis using the indicators can be used to undertake comparative analysis in different countries, to examine the extent to which authorities favour specific legal standards in the assessment of specific conducts and the way in which the judicial review process treats decisions depending on the legal standard used.

Objectives

The study examined the smokers’ non-compliance rates in indoor public places in Russia and the sociodemographic factors associated with non-compliance.

Methods

Univariate analysis and logistic regression models were performed using cross-sectional data from a representative sample of Russian adults (N = 4006).

Results

27.2% of Russian smokers did not comply with smoke-free bans. Non-compliance was attributed to sociodemographic characteristics of smokers, mainly to the number of cigarettes smoked per day, regular alcohol consumption, being aged between 15 and 34 years, being in the highest income group and living in an urban area. Neither the sex, nor the family status of smokers exerted a statistically significant affiliation with non-compliance. Higher rates of non-compliance were observed in restaurants, cafes, bars and nightclubs, common domestic premises of apartment buildings and indoor workplaces. Violations on public transport, in governmental buildings, health and sport facilities, colleges and universities were less common.

Conclusions

There is a need to revise the methods of enforcement with respect to sociodemographic characteristics of smokers associated with non-compliance in public places where violations are widespread.

The paper develops a new extension of the sequential preference condition, which leads to unique stable matching in all subpopulations, obtained by consistent restrictions of the marriage matching problem. Under the new condition, the Gale–Shapley algorithm is stable, consistent, strategy-proof, Pareto optimal for men, and Pareto optimal for women.

The paper illustrates how a Bayesian approach to yield fitting can be implemented in a non-parametric framework with automatic smoothing inferred from the data. It also briefly illustrates the advantages of such an an approach using real data.

The paper uses an infinite dimensional (functional space) approach to inverse problems. Numerical computations are carried out using a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm with several tweaks to ensure good performance. The model explicitly uses bid-ask spreads to allow for observation errors and provides automatic smoothing based on them.

A non-parametric framework allows to capture complex shapes of zero-coupon yield curves typical for emerging markets. Bayesian approach allows to assess the precision of estimates, which is crucial for some applications. Examples of estimation results are reported for three different bond markets: liquid (German), medium liquidity (Chinese) and illiquid (Russian).

The result shows that infinite-dimensional Bayesian approach to term structure estimation is feasible. Market practitioners could use this approach to gain more insight into interest rates term structure. For example, they could now be able to complement their non-parametric term structure estimates with Bayesian confidence intervals, which would allow them to assess statistical significance of their results.

The model does not require parameter tuning during estimation. It has its own parameters, but they are to be selected during model setup.

This article analyses antitrust enforcement practice in Russian courts in the area of competition-restricting agreements. The analysis is based on the court decision database of litigations with the Russian competition authority (the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS)). In the database litigations that officially started in the period 2008–2012 were included. Final court decisions were evaluated, taking into account litigation duration (sometimes up to 3 years). The database contains 400 cases, including 236 horizontal agreements and 164 other agreements (mostly vertical agreements). Based on the evidence of this database, important features and problems of the interpretation and implementation of competition law in Russia and priority areas of enforcement were identified. Antitrust policy was analysed taking into account the risks of type 1 and type 2 errors, including the problem of flexibility of prohibitions (per se vs Rule of reason (ROR) approaches), standards of proof and the problem of consistency of enforcement.

This article is devoted to the creation of intelligent modelling tools for decision support in the evaluation of intellectual projects submitted for financing, as based on qualitatively defined characteristics. The economic and mathematical models that form the basis of the toolkit are constructed using the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy logic, which allows for the description of poorly structured knowledge of specialists, as well as their application in solving questions about the extent of the impact of the proposed projects on the environment. The authors classify investment projects according to the degree of impact on the environment, the environmental criteria required by the investor for the evaluation of investment projects, and the formal formulation of the problem of evaluation of investment projects when taking into account the environmental factor. The toolkit was created based on the concept of intellectualization, where economic and mathematical models for the evaluation of investment projects are programmatically implemented via the tools and functions available in the MATLAB package.

Bachet's game is a variant of the game of Nim. There are n objects in one pile. Two players make moves one after another. On every move, a player is allowed to take any positive number of objects not exceeding some fixed number m. The player who takes the last object loses. We consider a variant of Bachet's game in which each move is a lottery over set {1,2,…,m}. Outcome of a lottery is the number of objects that player takes from the pile. We show that under some nondegenericity assumptions on the set of available lotteries the probability that the first player wins in subgame perfect Nash equilibrium converges to 1/2 as n tends to infinity.

We propose an original approach to constructing an index of efficiency of FDI transformation into steady economic and innovation growth. As factors of efficient transformation we consider many institutional indicators. We rank countries on the sample of 31 developed and developing economies. The results of bivariate and multivariate Granger tests show that FDI causes economic development and intellectual capital in a number of indicators. With non-parametric DEA method and Malmquist Index we identify countries at the efficiency frontier by the quality of FDI management. Change in efficiency over time along the IC growth path is highly influenced by government effectiveness.

We explain a lack of civic culture in today’s Russia, closely related to democratic deficit in the country, by a path-dependency which has originated at the critical juncture of transition to market economy. Suppression of democracy in the early 1990s to expedite unpopular reform had exposed the new institutional order to oligarchic capture and set in motion a vicious circle of extractive economic and political institutions. The latter have been shaping views and attitudes in the society via institutional learning, continuously suppressing civic culture and solidifying social foundations for extractive institutions. We present evidence from the World Values Survey supporting the above conclusions.

Explicit two-level in time and symmetric in space finite-difference schemes constructed by approximating the 1D barotropic quasi-gas-/quasi-hydrodynamic systems of equations are studied. The schemes are linearized about a constant solution with a nonzero velocity, and, for them, necessary and sufficient conditions for the L2-dissipativity of solutions to the Cauchy problem are derived depending on the Mach number. These conditions differ from one another by at most twice. The results substantially develop the ones known for the linearized Lax–Wendroff scheme. Numerical experiments are performed to analyze the applicability of the found conditions in the nonlinear formulation to several schemes for different Mach numbers.

We develop a new methodology to identify corruption in public procurement auctions with reserve prices and apply it to Russian public procurement auctions of gasoline in 2011–2013. We identify corrupt procurer–seller pairs by exploiting the variation in reserve prices. Since auction reserve prices are set by the procurer before the auction, they should be independent from the identity of the winning seller. We estimate reserve prices as a function of the local market price, contract, procurer and time controls, and procurer–seller fixed effects. A procurer–seller pair is labeled as potentially corrupt if its pair fixed effect is significantly larger than the average procurer fixed effect. Despite their reserve price overpricing, corrupt sellers face less competition in auctions organized by procurers with whom they form a corrupt pair and have a higher probability of wining these auctions. Auctions won by corrupt pairs exhibit higher final contract prices, leading to considerable welfare losses. The detrimental effect of reserve price manipulation on final prices is mitigated by higher competition and fully offset by electronic auctions with sufficient competition.

In developing economies, which rely considerably on the dollar and euro, changes in the currency structure of bank deposits may be strategic and may work as an additional market discipline mechanism. This study sheds light on this currency shifts mechanism in the Russian market for personal deposits. Using data on 900 banks for 2005–2015, we show that less risky banks demonstrate higher growth in the share of deposits denominated in foreign currency (FX), even when the exchange rate volatility component is extracted. The shifts are supported by the quantity-based mechanism as more reliable banks enjoy higher FX deposit growth.

How do elections and post-election protest shape political trust in a competitive autocracy? Taking advantage of largely exogenous variation in the timing of a survey conducted in Moscow in 2011, we find that an election had little systematic effect on political trust, perhaps because vote improprieties were not new information. In contrast, the unexpected protest that followed increased trust in government. We argue that when autocrats permit protest unexpectedly, citizens may update their beliefs about the trustworthiness of the government. In this case, heightened trust arises largely from opposition voters - those most likely to be surprised by permission to hold the protest - who update their beliefs. Our results suggest that citizens may cue not off the content of a protest, but off the government's decision to permit it. In addition, autocrats can increase trust in government by allowing protest when it is unexpected.

We develop a theory of equilibrium market volatility in a general equilibrium duopoly with complete information. The resulting economic system possesses a property, which can be described as ‘natural volatility’ of markets, even if players have complete information. Economy is described as a strategic market game where every player has market power as a buyer and a seller. Players are uncertain about each other’s actions, and due to the properties of expected utility maximization there is no convergence of common beliefs of common knowledge to unique mixed strategies equilibrium, hence, rational expectations approach cannot be applied.  Volatility at the market appears from a multiplicity of equilibrium mixed strategies; they cannot be computed precisely, but only approximated. We identify several Pareto-efficient strategies and study induced prices, allocations and payoffs, which are all volatile. 

The model of the real sector of the Russian economy is presented. It allows for the separate description of GDP and its components by expenditure both in constant and in current prices. Unlike standard macroeconomic models, the model proposed considers a set of Trader agents in addition to Producer agent. Traders are based on a set of CES-functions and allow to decompose the statistics available into a set of unobserved components. The Producer is based on a specific production function that performs well for Russian data and works with financial variables, such as credits and bank accounts. In contrary to the standard approach, the model is not linearized to get estimates of model parameters but is estimated directly using a set of nonlinear equations. The optimization is performed numerically and allows to get both series of unobserved model products and their prices and model parameters. The stability of the solution found is checked on simulated data.

We are constructing an imperfect competition general equilibrium model, with non-consumable money and labor market; our toolkit is an equilibrium default model of Shubik-Wilson (1978). Our result has an ‘equilibrium volatility’ simultaneously occurring at all three markets: labor, goods, and credit market, with a fixed money supply from a bank. A worker and an entrepreneur strategically and simultaneously trade at the three markets. Players are uncertain about each other’s actions, and do not have a convergence of common beliefs of common knowledge. It is impossible to calculate equilibrium mixed strategies exactly, but it is possible to identify some Pareto-efficient strategies and study induced prices, wages, interest rates, default, allocations and payoffs, which are all volatile, and their fluctuations are not independent. We present an equilibrium result, when a total value of default is bigger than total money supply.

For several years, the Russian system of higher education had been undergoing massive transformations related to the enhancement of the global competitiveness of the national academic sector. The introduction of research-oriented universities and the transition to incentive contracts are the main elements of the reform. In this article we show how these institutional changes contribute to reducing the problem of gender inequality in academia. Based on comprehensive data from a Russian faculty survey (MEMO), it is found that there are considerable differences in gender wage inequality by university status: female faculty earn significantly lower salaries in ordinary universities, but there are no gender differences in pay in research-oriented universities, which are most actively transitioning to incentive remuneration schemes. Female faculty experience vertical segregation: women are less likely to achieve senior positions in university hierarchies. We also found indirect evidence of women’s self-selection for lower-paid positions: female faculty are less likely to achieve advanced degrees and to have research publications.  Overall, the study shows that male faculty earns 8.7% higher salaries than female counterparts after controlling for all observable characteristics. Oaxaca decomposition showed that 53% of the gender wage gap can be explained by observable characteristics, while the rest can be attributed to discrimination, self-selection or unobservable factors. In the absence of discrimination, male faculty should earn 10% higher salaries, but due to discrimination and unobservable factors, male faculty, on average, earn 18.7% more. However, the gender wage gap in academia is considerably below the national average: women earned on average around 80% of male salaries in academic sector, while in the whole Russian economy women earned around 70% of men’s wages.