Try Your Hand at Predicting the 2025 Nobel Prize Winner in Economics

We are announcing our annual competition to predict the winners of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Vote on the website until October 13 to find out how well you understand modern economic science and how much you know about the main trends in academic research.

Daron Acemoglu signed his name on a chair during the Nobel Prize winners' meeting at the Nobel Museum, as is tradition.

Clément Morin/Nobel Prize Outreach

The HSE University Faculty of Economic Sciences is now accepting applications for its annual prediction contest. In exactly two weeks, the Nobel Committee will announce the winners of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel live on air. This year is special: for the fifth time, we are guessing which scientists have made such a significant contribution to science in recent years that they can stand shoulder to shoulder with Milton Friedman, Robert Solow, and other outstanding economists.

To participate, submit your prediction on the website by 12:45 pm on October 13. You can list up to three names of potential winners. After the official announcement, we will announce the results of the prediction contest.

Last year saw a record number of winners. Forty-four people believed that Daron Acemoglu was worthy of such a high award. Five named Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, but only one participant correctly chose all three laureates, also mentioning Simon Johnson. In 2023, five participants predicted that Claudia Goldin would win the award, in 2022 three hit the jackpot, and in 2021 two did. Some participants guessed the winners two years in a row.

Anyone can guess the winner with a little preparation. There are many options, but one of the most popular is to see who the analytical company Clarivate has recognised for groundbreaking research in economics and the most cited works. Since the ranking was created in 2002, more than 70 scientists from the Clarivate list have become Nobel Prize winners.

This year, Clarivate recognised five researchers at once. David Autor and Lawrence Katz were awarded 'for their fundamental analysis of wage structure, income inequality, educational development, and technological change.' Marianne Bertrand and Sendhil Mullainathan were awarded 'for joint research on racial discrimination, corporate governance, and other aspects of labour economics determined by psychology and culture,' and Nicholas Bloom was awarded 'for analysing the impact of economic and political uncertainty on investment, employment, and growth.' However, Clarivate has not recognised the eventual Nobel Prize winners for the last two years, so it is not worth relying solely on their expertise!

The prediction contest was founded at the HSE University Faculty of Economic Sciences in 2021 in memory of the talented economist and science populariser Prof. Andrei Bremzen, who first launched a similar competition at NES in 2004. FES is continuing this tradition.

 

Predict!